后智能手机时代,谁是移动互联网的新变数?

从 Mobile Phone 到 Auto Mobile,后智能手机时代,新的计算平台呼之欲出。

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a16z 合伙人 Benedict Evans 写了篇很棒的文章 The end of a mobile wave ,文章指出,智能手机时代的已终结。

其论据如下:

By 2020 there'll be 6bn adults on earth and more than 5bn people with phones, and the last billion are necessarily the slowest and hardest to reach. Phone sales are a function of the install base and the replacement rate - the install base hasn’t got much more growth and the replacement rate is also starting to lengthen (or at least not shorten). So phone sales will slow. Then, most phone sales now are already smartphones (as seen in the chart above), so the conversion of phone sales to smartphone sales also hasn’t got much further to grow. The smartphone install base does have a lot of room to grow, but that's a function of replacement at close to existing volumes, and even that will be largely done in a few more years. Hence: smartphone sales growth is slowing down.

当然,所谓智能手机时代终结仅仅是指其行业红利的消失,也意味着该领域小公司再无崛起的可能性。上周苹果迎来 13 年最差的一次财报主要原因也是 iPhone 销量的下滑,尽管公众对于 iPhone 销量下滑归结于苹果创新乏力,但从 Benedict Evans 的这些数据来看,苹果目前面临的困难是新产品线缺乏吸引力,不过 iPhone 占据了苹果超过六成的利润,如何实现所谓利润切换的「软着陆」,才是考验库克的最大难题。

上周GMIC大会主题演讲中,特斯拉、高德地图都在讲述另一个「移动」的主题,也就是汽车。俞永福在演讲中 强调:

过去的十几年,实际上我的工作重心在第一件事上,第一个Mobile,UC整个抓住了手机向移动互联网发展的机会,成为了今天的UC。另外高德也在另外一个移动的中心,Auto Mobile,我们未来关注的视角会越来越多的时间关注在Auto Mobile,今天上午大家的关心都不是phone,我们关心的是Auto Mobile,这是我们生活的中心。

Benedict Evans 同样也认为,汽车会成为后智能手机时代移动互联网的新变数:

The obvious next market is cars, which in aggregate are much larger in revenue terms, and where a large part of the supply chain will be fundamentally remade by the shift to electric and (in due course) to autonomy. Cars are a Big Deal for the tech industry.

再看下面这张图:

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