大数据、机器学习不过是一片阿司匹林

数据科学家 Monica Rogati 写了篇很短但很有见解性的文章Machine Learning, AI, and the Emperor’s Vest — Medium 其中提到,机器学习或深度学习的确在进步,但深度学习终究只是数学游戏,而不是魔术:

We know machine learning is math, not magic, and we don’t want to be left holding the bag when someone declares that the AI emperor has no clothes.

无独有偶,Nautilus 网站也有一篇让大家破解对大数据不切实际幻想的文章:How Big Data Creates False Confidence - Facts So Romantic

在IT行业鼓吹「大数据」如何带来价值的时候,这篇文章告诉我们:大数据不是万能药,充其量只是一片阿司匹林:

But there’s a problem: It’s tempting to think that with such an incredible volume of data behind them, studies relying on big data couldn’t be wrong. But the bigness of the data can imbue the results with a false sense of certainty. Many of them are probably bogus—and the reasons why should give us pause about any research that blindly trusts big data.

再推荐 Nate Silver 的 《The Signal and the Noise》,中文版译为《信号与噪声》,本书探讨了在大数据时代,各个应用场景下的的「信号」与「噪声」,两者的博弈也就决定了最后的预测结局,事实上,我们时刻都在预测:

Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome.